AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
55%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdd22..f1 | Smart | NO | $1.9K | +12% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.8K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$682 on $5.8K capital deployed (avg +11.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |