How did 'Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $23.6M

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Resolved · MAY 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (2 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

2 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	41c	18%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	70c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	20c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	55c	60%
Kimi Macro	YES	70c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 26c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x1bc6..36	MM	YES	$1.0K	+6%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (+6%), $1.0K on YES Track Record 2mo on platform · 628 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (628) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,000 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	28c	$23.6M	0c
AI Consensus	59c	—	× missed

Back to Market Radar