Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $12.3M

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Q: How did 'Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 20, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	93c	86%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	88c	75%
Gemini Flash	???	79c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	86c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

2 of 2 Tracked Wallets

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 2 are smart money with 100% average win rate. All 2 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x1bc6..36	Smart	YES	$7.7K	+10%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+10%), $7.7K on YES Activity · 6 events · Jan 07 → Mar 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 07BUYYES78+$2,968$2,968 Jan 17BUYYES80+$2,096$5,156 Jan 29BUYYES69+$1,348$5,786 Feb 01BUYYES77+$348$6,788 Mar 14BUYYES88+$1,673$9,467 Mar 15SELLYES89−$1,692$7,882 Realized+$202 Unrealized+$718 Total Profit+$920 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 542 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xde04..37	Smart	YES	$1.1K	—
This Market Entered at 87c, $1.1K on YES Activity · 18 events · Sep 19 → May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES37+$7$7 Sep 20BUYYES38+$2,196$2,203 Nov 01BUYYES62+$24$3,647 Jan 04BUYYES71+$31$4,186 Jan 08BUYYES76+$76$4,581 Jan 17BUYYES82+$101$5,042 Jan 31BUYYES72+$50$4,478 Feb 08BUYYES86+$9$5,357 Feb 12BUYYES70+$35$4,395 Mar 04BUYYES82+$23$5,153 Mar 14BUYYES64+$3$4,040 Apr 11BUYYES71+$1,203$5,671 Apr 19BUYYES49+$617$4,551 Apr 20BUYYES43+$60$4,045 Apr 22BUYYES41+$916$4,757 May 04BUYYES65+$599$8,168 May 10BUYYES64+$695$8,745 May 18BUYYES87+$1,080$12,937 Realized— Unrealized−$4 Total Profit−$4 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1072 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,275 on $8.7K capital deployed (avg +26.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	86c	$12.3M	100c
AI Consensus	83c	—	✓ matched

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