AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 67c |
34%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 45c |
10%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 28c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 50c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 56c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 46c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered Sabalenka early at 28c and is letting the position ride into the tournament window, a directional accumulation pattern rather than a hedge. The 6c cushion above cost basis signals conviction that 34c undervalues her draw, with the entry price acting as a soft floor for the YES side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $5.8K | +16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$5,752 on $5.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 56c | $298.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 46c | — | ✓ matched |