AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 54c |
8%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 42c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 32c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 45c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 37c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Single tracked wallet entered NO at 57c, fading Villa's top-4 odds when the market priced lower probability. With YES now at 63c, smart money is offside but hasn't capitulated, suggesting belief that 63c overstates Villa's actual top-4 path. Thin sample (1 wallet) makes this directional signal weak — treat as noise until corroborated.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $1.1K | -16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,077 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 63c | $421.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | × missed |