Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Prediction markets put the probability at 64%: Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage. Currently, markets are divided (64% YES, 36% NO). ⚽️ How to watch the World Cup in Australia.

What’s Happening

As of June 24, 2026, Australia sits in second place in Group D of the FIFA World Cup with 3 points and a goal differential of -1, following a 2-0 loss to the United States on June 19 and a 1-0 win over Turkey on June 15. The Socceroos’ record stands at 1 win, 1 loss, with Paraguay also holding 3 points but trailing on goal differential after a 2-1 defeat to the U.S. and a 1-0 win over Turkey. The U.S. has already clinched the group with 6 points, leaving Australia and Paraguay to battle for the second automatic advancement spot in Thursday’s simultaneous kickoffs. A draw against Paraguay would secure Australia’s second-place finish, while a loss would eliminate them if Paraguay wins by enough to flip the goal differential. [US Soccer, Jun 19]

The probability that Australia finishes second in Group D in the FIFA World Cup group stage stands at 64%, driven by favorable scenarios from sports data agency Opta, which simulates 94% of outcomes with Australia advancing to the round of 32. The key variable is Thursday’s match against Paraguay, where a draw is the most likely result given both teams’ defensive records—Australia has conceded 2 goals in two games, Paraguay 3. If Australia finishes second in Group D in the FIFA World Cup group stage, they will face a third-place team from Group E or F in the round of 32 on July 1, a path that The Guardian’s supercomputer calls “clearer” after results in other groups eliminated potential stronger opponents. [Guardian, Jun 23]

Historical precedent favors Australia: in 2022, they advanced from Group D with 4 points after a 1-0 win over Denmark, and their current form—3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in their last five competitive matches—mirrors that run. However, Paraguay’s recent 2-1 loss to the U.S. on June 19 showed vulnerability, as they allowed a 78th-minute winner from Christian Pulisic. ESPN’s analysis notes that Australia’s goalkeeper Patrick Beach, who was caught out of position on the U.S.’s second goal, must be sharper against Paraguay’s counterattack. If Australia finishes second in Group D in the FIFA World Cup group stage, it would mark their third consecutive World Cup knockout-round appearance, a milestone for the program. [ESPN, Jun 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $56K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($56K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 64c YES.