AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 96c signals conviction that goalkeeper goals at the World Cup remain a near-zero-probability tail event, consistent with historical base rates. The lone tracked entry near max-NO pricing indicates this was treated as a low-risk yield trade rather than a directional thesis. Direction implied: continued drift toward NO=100c as the tournament progresses without a keeper scoring, with minimal smart-money interest in fading the consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.6K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$72 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +4.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $1.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |