How did 'Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 17, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 17, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.6M

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Resolved · MAY 17

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (2 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	54c	8%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	8c	70%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	8c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 22c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 94c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$1.8K	+1%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+1%), $1.8K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 05 → May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYNO92+$871$871 May 11BUYNO95+$953$1,855 Realized— Unrealized+$26 Total Profit+$26 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1376 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$125 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +6.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$4.6M	0c
AI Consensus	22c	—	✓ matched

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