Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.5M

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Q: How did 'Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 15, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 15

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	26c	48%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	7c	75%
Grok Contrarian	YES	15c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	14c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 of 8 Tracked Wallets

We tracked 8 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 are smart money with 100% average win rate. All 3 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x2601..A9	Smart	YES	$2.5K	+65%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+65%), $2.5K on YES Track Record 4mo on platform · 302 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 302 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x0c99..cF	Smart	YES	$1.9K	+16%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (+16%), $1.9K on YES Track Record 1y on platform · 1452 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1452 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x3710..8D	Smart	YES	$1.6K	-3%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-3%), $1.6K on YES Track Record 1y on platform · 370 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 370 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x2128..eE	Retail	YES	$23.2K	-4%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-4%), $23.2K on YES Track Record 9d on platform · 44 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 44 trades).
0x140d..37	Retail	YES	$2.3K	+13%
This Market Entered at 15c → now 50c (+13%), $2.3K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 13 trades · 100% win rate · crypto specialist Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x0Ced..b2	MM	YES	$1.6K	+50%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (+50%), $1.6K on YES Track Record 1y on platform · 759 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (759) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x16C7..31	Retail	YES	$1.3K	-3%
This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (-3%), $1.3K on YES Track Record 2mo on platform · 199 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 199 trades).
0x2Bb1..a5	Retail	YES	$1.2K	+18%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (+18%), $1.2K on YES Track Record 9d on platform · 1 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

See all 80 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$45,792 on $45.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

78% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	16c	$4.5M	0c
AI Consensus	13c	—	✓ matched

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