AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 90c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xed10..e5 ★ | MM | NO | $32.3K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,476 on $32.3K capital deployed (avg +10.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |