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Resolves: Oct 2026 ended Volume: $173K

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

YES
95c
NO
5c

As of September 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?” at 95% YES with $173K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.

Prediction markets give a 95% probability to: will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30?.

Up from 86% to 95% since 2026-07-28 (+9pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $173K Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 7/8 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis

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HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT
HOLD

7/8 models agree on YES, fair value 93c vs market 95c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 95c.

TARGET YIELD

7 of 8 Models Agree: YES

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH Bayesian UpdateYES97c
MATH PIN ModelYES98c
MATH Compound SignalYES75c
AI Claude AnalysisYES95c
82%
AI DeepSeek QuantYES95c
72%
AI Grok ContrarianNO38c
48%
AI Gemini FlashYES94c
90%
AI Kimi MacroYES96c
85%

7 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 95c. 2-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 62c — Market at 95% and tier-1 wallets heavily YES ignore fat-tail cancellation risks in the final 10 days: ICC/arrest-warrant friction, sudden...

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Both tracked wallets entered YES at 96c, indicating they bought into near-maximal probability rather than expressing a contrarian or high-upside view. Their positioning signals strong directional conviction that Netanyahu will visit NYC by September 30, but at these odds the trade offers minimal reward relative to risk. No NO entries appear, reinforcing that smart money sees no credible path to resolution against the YES outcome.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x5cd5..33 RetailYES$1.6K-1%
0x7c3d..6bRetailYES$1.3K-1%
See all 89 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

No Positions Are Currently in Profit

With YES trading at 95c and all tracked entries at 96c, every YES position is currently underwater by 1c, while no NO positions exist to show profit. The absence of profitable YES holders at this level suggests the market is pricing near-certainty, leaving little room for further upside without a catalyst. This dynamic caps near-term price support, as any dip below 95c would deepen losses for existing YES holders.

YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
0% in profit

Polymarket: 95c YES — $173K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 95c with $173K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 93c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket95c$173K
Our Model93c

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 95% YES with $173K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 93c YES. 7 models agree on direction.