AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 75c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 95c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c |
48%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 94c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 96c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 89c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets entered YES at 96c, indicating they bought into near-maximal probability rather than expressing a contrarian or high-upside view. Their positioning signals strong directional conviction that Netanyahu will visit NYC by September 30, but at these odds the trade offers minimal reward relative to risk. No NO entries appear, reinforcing that smart money sees no credible path to resolution against the YES outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $1.6K | -1% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | YES | $1.3K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$127 on $2.9K capital deployed (avg +4.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $203.1K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 89c | — | ✓ matched |