As of September 20, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?” at 95% YES with $173K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 95% probability to: will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on YES, fair value 93c vs market 95c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 95c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 95c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 94c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 85% |
7 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (75–98c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 95c. 2-point gap supports NO.
Both tracked wallets entered YES at 96c, indicating they bought into near-maximal probability rather than expressing a contrarian or high-upside view. Their positioning signals strong directional conviction that Netanyahu will visit NYC by September 30, but at these odds the trade offers minimal reward relative to risk. No NO entries appear, reinforcing that smart money sees no credible path to resolution against the YES outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $1.6K | -1% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | YES | $1.3K | -1% |
With YES trading at 95c and all tracked entries at 96c, every YES position is currently underwater by 1c, while no NO positions exist to show profit. The absence of profitable YES holders at this level suggests the market is pricing near-certainty, leaving little room for further upside without a catalyst. This dynamic caps near-term price support, as any dip below 95c would deepen losses for existing YES holders.
Polymarket prices YES at 95c with $173K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 93c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $173K |
| Our Model | 93c | — |