AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets positioned exclusively on NO at premium prices (57c-78c), accepting limited upside in exchange for high-conviction directional certainty. The absence of YES entries combined with deep NO profitability signals smart money treats confirmation as structurally improbable, not merely unlikely.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6828..56 | Smart | NO | $1.5K | +67% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $7.3K | +17% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,142 on $8.7K capital deployed (avg +35.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $301.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |