Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Bitcoin caps a dismal week as price wallows 50% below its all-time high.

What’s Happening

Bitcoin closed the week of June 5, 2026 trading near $62,500, capping a brutal stretch that pulled the cryptocurrency more than 50% below its September 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The selloff intensified after Michael Saylor's Strategy surprised the market with a bitcoin sale, sparking a broader risk-off cascade that briefly dragged spot prices under $60,000 for the first time since October 10, 2024. Aggregate crypto market capitalization shed roughly $2 trillion from the cycle peak, with billionaire Mark Cuban publicly reversing his crypto stance as liquidations accelerated across major venues. [Forbes, Jun 5]

The drawdown matters because $60,000 was the structural floor that held through the 2024 pre-election consolidation, and a sustained break opens technical air down toward the $48,000–$52,000 band before the next meaningful demand zone. A bitcoin dip to $25,000 would require an additional ~60% decline from current levels — a magnitude consistent with prior cycle bottoms but historically unusual within a single calendar year absent a systemic catalyst. Strategists flagged a tightening correlation with tech equities, with the looming SpaceX IPO cited as a potential liquidity drain that could pull marginal capital out of digital assets through the back half of 2026. Year-to-date, bitcoin is down more than 30%. [Barron's, Jun 5]

What happens next hinges on Federal Reserve policy and spot ETF flows. Traders are pricing what Forbes described as potentially "insane" money-printing scenarios that could trigger a rebound, while simultaneously bracing for "deeper correction waves" if Strategy continues distributing inventory. For a bitcoin dip to $25,000 to materialize by December 31, 2026, the market would need a cascade through the $48,000 support, capitulation from long-term holders currently sitting on cost-basis profits, and sustained ETF outflows over multiple consecutive months. The $25,000 level itself coincides with the pre-halving accumulation range from early 2023, making it a psychologically anchored but structurally distant target given current on-chain holder distribution. [CNBC, Jun 5]

Traded on Polymarket — $908K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $908K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.