Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES). Bitcoin caps a dismal week as price wallows 50% below its all-time high.

What’s Happening

Bitcoin extended a weeklong selloff on Friday, June 5, 2026, falling below the $60,000 threshold for the first time since October 10, 2024, after a surprise disclosure that Michael Saylor's Strategy had sold a portion of its bitcoin holdings triggered cascading liquidations across the crypto market. The cryptocurrency last traded near $62,500, marking a 50% decline from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in September 2025, and erasing all gains accumulated during the post-election "Trump Trade" rally. The drawdown has wiped out roughly $2 trillion in aggregate crypto market capitalization over the trailing week, with billionaire Mark Cuban publicly reversing his stance on the asset class amid the decline. [Forbes, Jun 5]

The path from the current spot level near $60,000 to a further bitcoin dip to $35,000 would require an additional ~42% drawdown from present prices, or roughly 72% peak-to-trough from the September 2025 high — a magnitude consistent with prior cycle bear-market lows but unprecedented within a single calendar year of the current cycle. Strategists have flagged a growing correlation between BTC and tech equities, with the recent leg lower coinciding with broader risk-off positioning. The Saylor sale broke a long-standing accumulation narrative tied to Strategy's treasury, and traders are now pricing in the possibility of "deeper correction waves" as on-chain data shows weakening spot bid support below the prior $58,000–$60,000 demand zone. [CNBC, Jun 5]

Forward catalysts include Federal Reserve policy signaling — with what analysts have characterized as accelerating money-printing potentially supporting a rebound — alongside continued spot ETF flow data and Strategy's subsequent treasury actions. Bitcoin is down more than 30% year-to-date in 2026, trading at levels last seen in fall 2024 before the Trump election rally. For a bitcoin dip to $35,000 to materialize before December 31, 2026, the asset would need to break through successive technical support bands including the 2024 pre-election consolidation range near $52,000–$58,000 and the prior cycle's reclaim level around $42,000. The probability of a full bitcoin dip to $35,000 by year-end depends on whether the current capitulation phase deepens or stabilizes near the $60,000 handle. [Investopedia, Jun 5]

Traded on Polymarket — $2.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 20c YES.