Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 42% YES on Polymarket with $3.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

58c

YES

42c

Prediction markets give a 42% probability to: will bitcoin dip to $45,000 by december 31, 2026?.

Currently at 42%

Traded on Polymarket — $3.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $3.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 42c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

$3.0M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 1 smart wallets and runs 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 58c

Smart money entered NO at 50c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 50c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$3.9K	+13%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 58c (+13%), $3.9K on NO Activity · 4 events · Feb 20 → Apr 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 20BUYNO55+$322$322 Feb 21BUYNO52+$296$601 Mar 30BUYNO47+$2,342$2,885 Apr 27BUYNO67+$346$4,455 Realized— Unrealized+$584 Total Profit+$584 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (872) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 50c. At current price 42c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 12 Cents

Significant 12-cent gap: Polymarket at 42c vs Kalshi at 30c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 42c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	42c	$3.0M
Kalshi	30c	—
Our Model	42c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 42% YES with $3.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.