As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?” at 14% YES with $2.0M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Standard Chartered holds a $100,000 year-end target, below the $110,000 mark, and a hawkish speech stalled the rally, keeping NO the favorite at 80%.
A hawkish shift in monetary policy has reset the near-term backdrop for whether bitcoin reach $110,000 before December 31, 2026. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole that reignited September rate-hike expectations, stalling a rally that had carried Bitcoin sharply higher from the roughly $73,500 level it traded at in May 2026. A Google Gemini AI model published August 31 projected Bitcoin trading between $95,000 and $125,000 by year-end, with a base-case target of exactly $110,000, treating the post-speech pullback as an entry rather than a top. [Cryptonews, Aug 31]
Institutional forecasters have grown more conservative through the year. Standard Chartered is maintaining a $100,000 Bitcoin target for the end of 2026, a figure it has cut twice from an earlier $300,000 call as ETF flows, US politics, corporate treasury buying and macro conditions shifted. The bank noted its published year-end targets finished above Bitcoin's actual December 31 price in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with gaps that varied considerably. Separately, models queried by analysts placed a realistic 2026 range between $90,000 and $130,000, with a stronger bull case needed for Bitcoin to reach $110,000 and hold it into the close. [Finance, Aug 21]
Odds cool sharply as price targets climb. On Polymarket, traders priced $100,000 at roughly 29-34% by year-end, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at 13%, while a thinly traded timeline showed the $100K threshold climbing to 48% by March 2027 and 81% by end-2027. Kalshi has built a comparable wall of caution at the six-figure mark. With the Fed's rate path unresolved and ETF demand the key swing factor, the question of whether bitcoin reach $110,000 hinges on macro conditions loosening before the December close. [Cryptonews, Aug 27]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 14c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 86c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 86c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 32c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 82c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 68% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 86c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 86c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds only a NO position entered at 87c, signaling a strong bearish bet against Bitcoin reaching $110k by December 2026. That entry implies the wallet expects YES to fall below 13c, reinforcing the dominant NO side and suggesting smart money sees the 14c YES price as overvalued.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $8.8K | -1% |
With YES at 14c, NO holders who entered at 87c are underwater by 73c per share, as the market prices only a 14% chance of Bitcoin hitting $110k by end-2026. No position is currently in profit, meaning the 87c NO entry is far above the current NO price of 86c, offering no support at these levels. The lack of profitable positions on either side suggests thin conviction and limited price support for further downside in YES.
Significant 16-cent gap: Polymarket at 14c vs Kalshi at 30c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 15c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $2.0M |
| Kalshi | 30c | — |
| Our Model | 15c | — |