AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 48c |
4%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 72c |
60%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 73c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 60c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 73c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 66c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money established YES exposure at deep-discount 24c levels, signaling early conviction that $80K was underpriced when the market dismissed it. However, with only one tracked wallet on the YES side against NO-dominant flow, this looks more like an isolated contrarian bet than a coordinated smart-money thesis — directional signal is weak.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x33c2..18 | MM | YES | $1.3K | +85% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,262 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44c | $8.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 66c | — | × missed |