AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 32c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 47c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 21c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdcc9..34 | Smart | NO | $1.6K | -46% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$16 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +1.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47c | $1.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 21c | — | ✓ matched |