Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Bitdeer still maintains zero holdings, selling 185.7 BTC this week.

What’s Happening

Bitcoin is trading near $78,100 as of April 25, 2026, with prediction market data showing a 7% probability that the asset will reach $85,000 before the month ends. The low likelihood reflects persistent selling pressure from major miners and cautious institutional positioning. Nasdaq-listed miner Bitdeer reported selling 185.7 BTC in the week ending April 24, maintaining zero Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet. This "sell-to-zero" strategy by a publicly traded miner signals a bearish short-term outlook on price momentum, as miners typically hold reserves when expecting appreciation. The $85,000 target now sits roughly 8.8% above current levels, a gap that would require a sharp rally in the final days of April — a scenario the market currently assigns only a 7% chance of materializing. [Bitget, Apr 25]

Institutional flows present a mixed picture for the "bitcoin reach $85,000 in april" thesis. On the bullish side, BlackRock's $IBIT ETF recorded $612 million in inflows during the week of April 13, contributing to a broader $1.9 billion net inflow week for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — the strongest five-day stretch since early February. BlackRock's $871 million dip-buying move was described by some analysts as a "mission accomplished" signal for institutional accumulation near the $75,000-$78,000 range. However, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley warned on April 20 that the "no-trade zone" persists until the Federal Reserve restarts quantitative easing, with Bitcoin chopping sideways between $74,000 and $80,000. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired 34,164 BTC at an average of $74,395 per coin, but its reliance on high-yield preferred stock (11.5% yield) suggests capital costs are rising. [Forbes, Apr 23]

The $85,000 level represents a key psychological resistance that would require a 9%+ surge in the remaining days of April — a move that technical analysts consider unlikely given current volume profiles. Bitcoin is trading below its 50-day moving average of approximately $82,500, and the 200-day moving average sits near $76,000, creating a tight range. On-chain data from Glassnode shows exchange inflows increasing by 12% over the past week, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. The Charles Schwab direct crypto trading launch, while a long-term bullish catalyst, has not yet translated into spot buying pressure, with Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noting the 75-basis-point fee makes it less competitive than spot ETFs. For the "bitcoin reach $85,000 in april" scenario to materialize, the market would need a coordinated catalyst — such as a surprise Fed pivot or a major corporate purchase — before the April 30 monthly close. [Markets, Apr 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $3.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $3.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 7c YES.