AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 35c |
30%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
80%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 10c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 34c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is exclusively long YES at deep-discount pricing (8c), signaling directional conviction that BTC reaching $85K in April is materially underpriced at current 15c. The single-sided positioning with zero NO interest from tracked wallets suggests alpha sees asymmetric upside, though thin wallet coverage (n=1) limits signal strength.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x33c2..18 | MM | YES | $1.4K | +104% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,442 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15c | $4.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | ✓ matched |