Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). I'm going to let the chart speak for itself.

What’s Happening

As of early May 2026, prediction market participants assign an 18% probability to the event that Bitcoin will reach $90,000 in May, with the overwhelming 82% betting against the milestone. This cautious outlook persists despite Bitcoin trading within a strong bullish channel, as noted by analysts on Bitget on May 2, who identified a confluence of support levels ahead of earnings season. The market’s skepticism is rooted in the sheer distance from current price levels; Bitcoin would need to rally approximately 40% from its present range to hit $90,000 within the remaining weeks of the month, a move that would require extraordinary volume and catalyst alignment. On-chain data from major dashboards shows whale accumulation has slowed in recent days, with exchange inflows ticking higher, suggesting profit-taking pressure that could cap near-term upside. [Bitget, May 2]

The regulatory landscape, however, has shifted dramatically in Bitcoin’s favor this month. On May 2, Forbes reported that the White House’s top crypto adviser, Patrick Witt, quietly confirmed an “imminent” advancement of the long-awaited Bitcoin and crypto market structure bill, which traders describe as a potential $6.2 trillion price earthquake for the asset class. This legislative catalyst, combined with bullish long-term price predictions from veteran trader Peter Brandt targeting $300,000 to $500,000 (as covered by Markets Insider on April 26), has fueled speculative interest. Yet the market remains anchored by technical resistance near the $70,000 level, where the 50-day moving average has acted as a ceiling since mid-April. A break above that threshold, supported by the regulatory news, would be the first necessary step toward challenging the $90,000 target. [Forbes, May 2]

Looking ahead, the next major test for the “bitcoin reach $90,000 in may” thesis will be the actual passage of the market structure bill, which could trigger a wave of institutional buying from entities currently sidelined by regulatory uncertainty. However, the clock is ticking: with only 29 days left in May, Bitcoin would need to average daily gains of over 1.4% to hit the target—a pace it has not sustained since the post-halving rally in April 2024. Meanwhile, capital rotation into meme-coin presales like Pepeto (which crossed $9.5 million raised as of April 26) and AlphaPepe (which surpassed $960,000 on April 25) suggests retail liquidity is being diverted away from Bitcoin, further reducing the probability of a sudden spike. The 18% probability reflects a market that sees the regulatory tailwind as real but insufficient to overcome the time constraint and technical overhead. [Markets Insider, Apr 26]

Traded on Polymarket — $89K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($89K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.