AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
92%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 96c, signaling strong conviction that Bitcoin will not reach $90,000 in September. Entering NO so close to maximum payout suggests smart money sees the YES scenario as highly unlikely, though the lack of profit margin leaves little room for error. Directionally, this positioning points to continued downside pressure on the YES contract.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $24.3K | -3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,014 on $24.3K capital deployed (avg +4.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $1.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |