AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 10c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 9c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 98c, a near-certainty bet that Bitcoin will not reach $95,000 in September. That entry signals strong conviction against the upside threshold, though the position is currently at a loss as NO trades below entry. With only one wallet tracked, the sample is thin, but its direction reinforces the dominant NO-side sentiment.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $4.8K | -6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$94 on $4.8K capital deployed (avg +1.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $954.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |