Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 9% YES on Polymarket with $54K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

91c

YES

Prediction markets give a 9% probability to: will nirav shah be the maine senate democratic nominee on july 27?.

Currently at 9%

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 91c

Smart money entered NO at 90c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 90c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	MM	NO	$3.3K	+1%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 91c (+1%), $3.3K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 15BUYNO90+$3,273$3,273 Realized— Unrealized+$40 Total Profit+$40 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1798) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 90c. At current price 9c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 23 Cents

Significant 23-cent gap: Polymarket at 9c vs Kalshi at 32c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 9c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	9c	$54K
Kalshi	32c	—
Our Model	9c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 9% YES with $54K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.