AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 49c |
2%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 35c |
30%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 24c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 76c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One wallet with a 24c YES entry is far too thin to constitute a smart-money read; a lone breakeven position carries no directional conviction. The market's 76c NO pricing reflects the base-rate expectation that Bellows faces a contested or unfavorable nomination path, and the tracked YES entry runs against that consensus without corroborating capital. Treat this as noise, not signal — no multi-wallet anchor exists to validate the long-shot YES thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.5K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,547 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $91.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | ✓ matched |