AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 56c |
12%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 56c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 69c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 41c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3349..b8 ★ | MM | YES | $1.8K | -10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,822 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 37c | $587.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 59c | — | × missed |