AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 57c |
42%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
35%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 72c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet holds a uniform YES entry at 52c, signaling a confident, early accumulation at a discount to the current market. This smart money position implies conviction in Alcaraz's chances, with no NO hedging, suggesting the wallet expects continued favorable news or market repricing upward. The narrow entry range indicates a deliberate, non-speculative stance, likely based on fundamental analysis rather than short-term noise.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $3.0K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,979 on $3.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57c | $2.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 59c | — | × missed |