As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?” at 57% YES with $2.3M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Alcaraz, the reigning US Open champion, is +250 to retain his title at the 2026 tournament, according to DraftKings odds as of midday Thursday.
Carlos Alcaraz enters the 2026 Men's US Open as the defending champion and the betting favorite, with DraftKings listing him at +250 as of midday Thursday, August 27. The 23-year-old Spaniard has a career record of 24-3 in New York and has won the title twice, including last year's final victory over rival Jannik Sinner. However, his path to a third crown is complicated by a wrist injury that forced him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and he had not played a men's singles match since early April before his first-round appearance on August 31. Alcaraz enters the tournament as the No. 3 seed in the ATP rankings, trailing both Sinner and Alexander Zverev, who captured his first Grand Slam title at the 2026 French Open [ESPN, Aug 27].
The market reflects this uncertainty, pricing the carlos alcaraz men's us open outcome at 36% YES versus 64% NO, a notable shift from what would typically be negative odds for a healthy defending champion. Alcaraz won the Australian Open in January, giving him a chance to claim multiple majors in 2026 despite the layoff, but his extended absence—139 days between competitive singles matches—has made match fitness the tournament's biggest question. He did participate in mixed doubles with Serena Williams ahead of the Open, and he eased past Roman Safiullin in straight sets in the first round on August 31, suggesting he can work his way into form by the second week if he avoids early rust [Al Jazeera, Sep 1].
The odds movement matters because it signals a more open men's field than in recent years, with Sinner and Zverev both positioned to challenge Alcaraz's dominance. Zverev, in particular, is seen as the logical alternative after his Roland Garros breakthrough, and the theoretical door is open for a player not named Alcaraz or Sinner to take the title. Alcaraz's own résumé in New York remains elite—he has won the event twice and has never lost before the quarterfinals—but the wrist injury and lack of match play introduce genuine risk. As the tournament progresses through the second week, the key question is whether Alcaraz can elevate his level against top-10 opposition, with his next matches likely to test his fitness and timing against increasingly difficult opponents [NY Daily News, Aug 29].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 28-point mispricing — fair value 85c vs market 57c. BUY YES at 57c — models see 28c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 57c | 42% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 35% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 72c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 72% |
Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 85c vs market 57c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 85c — market prices it at 57c. 28-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet holds a uniform YES entry at 52c, signaling a confident, early accumulation at a discount to the current market. This smart money position implies conviction in Alcaraz's chances, with no NO hedging, suggesting the wallet expects continued favorable news or market repricing upward. The narrow entry range indicates a deliberate, non-speculative stance, likely based on fundamental analysis rather than short-term noise.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $3.0K | +10% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, entered at 52c against a current price of 57c, indicating strong upward momentum and no trapped sellers. With no NO entries, there is no overhead resistance from losing positions, supporting further price appreciation toward higher probabilities. The absence of NO profit-taking suggests limited bearish pressure, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Polymarket prices YES at 57c with $2.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 85c. Significant 28-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57c | $2.3M |
| Our Model | 85c | — |