AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet positioned exclusively NO at 94c, signaling high-conviction dismissal of Ruud's title chances from the outset. Smart money's refusal to take the long side even at deep-discount 5c reinforces that the market views this as a resolved-down outcome rather than an asymmetric lottery ticket.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Smart | NO | $14.8K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$919 on $14.8K capital deployed (avg +6.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $983.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |