AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO near the ceiling at 91c, signaling high conviction that invasion risk was already overpriced even at moderate odds. Smart money positioning here is unidirectional and validates the status-quo thesis — no alpha wallet is fading the consensus. Direction signal: NO continues to compound, with no smart-money catalyst for a YES repricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $8.5K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$888 on $8.5K capital deployed (avg +10.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |