Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 28, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $938.4K

Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?

Q: How did 'Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Apr 28, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 28

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 8 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	88c	76%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	52c	4%
Claude Analysis	YES	85c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	82c	75%
Grok Contrarian	NO	35c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	65c	60%
Kimi Macro	YES	85c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 74c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Despite NO showing as the dominant side by count, the smart money signal is bullish: YES entries scaled from 60c up to 76c, indicating conviction wallets added into strength rather than fading the rally. The stranded NO entry at 29c looks like a stale early-season hedge, not active positioning — directional flow points toward Flagg continuing to hold ROY favoritism.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xDe04..37	Retail	YES	$3.2K	-2%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 50c (-2%), $3.2K on YES Activity · 59 events · Oct 10 → Apr 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 10BUYNO25+$4$4 Oct 31BUYNO62+$62$72 Nov 02BUYNO61+$122$193 Nov 12BUYNO50+$12$170 Nov 20BUYNO56+$14$206 Nov 21BUYNO57+$6$213 Dec 02BUYNO43+$5$166 Dec 03BUYNO44+$2$172 Dec 24BUYNO26+$29$130 Dec 31BUYNO13+$3$68 Jan 07BUYNO21+$34$147 Jan 13BUYNO19+$37$165 Jan 15BUYNO21+$28$213 Jan 22BUYNO25+$8$262 Jan 28BUYNO20+$3$213 Feb 07BUYNO11+$14$132 Feb 12BUYNO16+$67$255 Feb 21BUYNO22+$24$389 Feb 22BUYNO24+$38$453 Feb 24BUYNO28+$32$554 Feb 25BUYNO28+$4$565 Feb 26BUYNO35+$69$774 Feb 27BUYNO47+$71$1,114 Feb 28BUYNO60+$69$1,488 Mar 01BUYNO55+$41$1,398 Mar 07BUYNO64+$152$1,792 Mar 13BUYNO73+$146$2,186 Mar 15BUYNO72+$82$2,235 Mar 18BUYNO66+$66$2,111 Mar 21BUYNO74+$22$2,394 Mar 22BUYNO69+$15$2,247 Mar 23BUYNO70+$7$2,287 Mar 25BUYNO61+$61$2,054 Mar 28BUYNO74+$246$2,723 Apr 03BUYNO86+$2,842$6,029 Apr 04BUYNO63+$516$4,896 Apr 05BUYNO74+$125$5,925 Apr 06BUYNO37+$662$3,656 Apr 07BUYNO33+$359$3,539 Apr 08BUYNO32+$2,104$5,543 Apr 09BUYNO50+$5,292$13,962 Apr 10BUYNO53+$2,094$17,105 Apr 11BUYNO33+$246$10,798 Apr 12BUYNO35+$104$11,616 Apr 13BUYNO36+$3,316$15,254 Apr 14BUYNO55+$1,715$25,066 Apr 15BUYNO45+$3,474$23,908 Apr 16BUYNO36+$572$19,704 Apr 17BUYNO34+$686$19,342 Apr 18BUYNO30+$3,607$20,538 Apr 19BUYNO31+$411$21,852 Apr 20BUYNO31+$35$21,860 Apr 21BUYNO24+$625$17,768 Apr 22BUYNO38+$1,799$29,761 Apr 23BUYNO36+$108$27,966 Apr 24BUYNO25+$14$19,817 Apr 25BUYNO27+$938$22,284 Apr 26BUYNO23+$1,485$19,892 Apr 27BUYNO20+$415$18,160 Realized— Unrealized−$584 Total Profit−$584 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 292 trades).
0x8F03..d6	MM	YES	$2.0K	-3%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 50c (-3%), $2.0K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 202 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (202) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xE542..37	Retail	YES	$1.9K	-28%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 50c (-28%), $1.9K on YES Track Record 22d on platform · 1286 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1286 trades).

See all 80 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

71% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$12,934 on $10.1K capital deployed (avg +128.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

71% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	28c	$938.4K	100c
AI Consensus	74c	—	✓ matched

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