AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 61c |
22%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 14c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 32c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 32c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 28c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money here is a single wallet positioned NO at 18c, signaling early conviction that Count Binface will NOT secure second place — a contrarian stance against the crowd's 78c YES pricing. One tracked wallet is a weak sample, but its direction is unambiguous: the only tracked participant is fading the YES momentum, hinting the market may be overpricing the novelty candidate's odds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $1.0K | +19% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,009 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $581.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 28c | — | × missed |