AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively short on the $130 strike, treating it as structurally unreachable rather than a tradeable tail. The 61c average NO entry signals conviction the spike thesis was overpriced from the start, and the absence of YES accumulation as price collapsed to 5c reinforces that no tracked wallet sees residual June convexity worth chasing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | NO | $2.0K | +49% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,271 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +62.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |