AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Tracked smart money sits exclusively on NO at 92c, signaling conviction that $140 crude is a tail-risk priced too rich even at single digits. The absence of YES accumulation at 8c — a level that would offer 11x payout — is itself the loudest signal: alpha sees no realistic path to the strike before June close.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $7.1K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$618 on $7.1K capital deployed (avg +8.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $3.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |