AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet positioned NO at 73c, signaling early conviction that crude would not breach $150 by end of June — a structurally aggressive strike given spot levels. Their entry well above current price implies smart money treated the YES tail as overpriced from the start, and the 6c residual offers no asymmetric reward for chasing the long side now.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8152..da | Smart | NO | $2.9K | +25% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,093 on $2.9K capital deployed (avg +37.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $4.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |