How did 'Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 17, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 17, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $3.5M

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Resolved · MAY 17

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 5 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	56c	12%
Compound Signal	NO	34c	32%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	13c	72%
Gemini Flash	???	35c	55%
Kimi Macro	NO	13c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 14c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$2.6K	-6%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (-6%), $2.6K on YES Activity · 9 events · Apr 26 → May 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 26BUYYES11+$2$2 May 01BUYYES13+$7$10 May 03BUYYES13+$281$291 May 05BUYYES15+$627$972 May 06BUYYES14+$227$1,157 May 08BUYYES14+$932$2,046 May 09BUYYES13+$269$2,220 May 10BUYYES13+$317$2,450 May 11BUYYES13+$129$2,579 Realized— Unrealized−$161 Total Profit−$161 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1376 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,621 on $2.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	13c	$3.5M	0c
AI Consensus	30c	—	✓ matched

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