AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 72c |
44%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 49c |
2%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 49c |
30%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 60c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 57c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 35c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.3K | +33% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,315 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $316.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 57c | — | × missed |