Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 6% YES on Polymarket with $110K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

94c

YES

Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 15, 2026?.

Currently at 6%

Traded on Polymarket — $110K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $110K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered NO at 94c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

— TARGET YIELD

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 94c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$6.2K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (+0%), $6.2K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$2.3K	-47%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 6c (-47%), $2.3K on YES Track Record 24d on platform · 1246 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1246) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 162 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 10c, NO wallets at 94c. At current price 6c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 48 Cents

Significant 48-cent gap: Polymarket at 6c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 6c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	6c	$110K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	6c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $110K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.