Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $940.4K

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Q: How did 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 20, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 20

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	32c	36%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	65c	70%
Grok Contrarian	NO	10c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	12c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 44c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $18K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 9c–29c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$8.2K	-78%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 50c (-78%), $8.2K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 545 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (545) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$6.1K	-34%
This Market Entered at 9c → now 50c (-34%), $6.1K on YES Track Record 10d on platform · 1956 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1956) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$3.6K	-79%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-79%), $3.6K on YES Track Record 1y on platform · 1466 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1466) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$17,912 on $17.9K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$940.4K	0c
AI Consensus	44c	—	✓ matched

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