Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). Trump Says Iran Wants Hormuz Open in Tussle Over War’s End.
President Donald Trump has publicly stated he will not lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear program is reached, rejecting an interim proposal from Tehran that would have reopened the waterway. In an interview with Axios on April 29, 2026, Trump explicitly divided the Iranian government into hardliners and moderates, signaling that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a key bargaining chip. This stance comes as global energy markets face severe disruption, with U.S. gas prices hitting their highest level in four years amid the two-month war. The rejection of Iran’s offer effectively delays any potential announcement that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026, reinforcing the current 40% probability that such an announcement will occur. [World Oil, Apr 29]
The deadlock follows a series of conflicting signals from both capitals. On April 28, 2026, Trump posted on social media that Iran had asked the U.S. to lift the blockade while the two sides negotiate an end to the war, which has upended global energy supplies. Iran has consistently demanded the end of the U.S. naval blockade as a precondition for immediate talks on its nuclear program, while Washington insists on a full nuclear deal first. The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC in May 2026, a move directly linked to the reshaping of oil markets caused by the conflict. The procedural milestone for any potential announcement is now tied to the White House weighing a peace offer from Iran that seeks to end the two-month war, though Trump’s rejection of the interim deal suggests a prolonged standoff. [Claims Journal, Apr 28]
Looking ahead, the key political question is whether Trump will make a formal announcement before the May 31, 2026 deadline, a move that would require either a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations or a unilateral policy shift. The current 40% probability reflects the market’s assessment that Trump’s hardline stance, combined with Iran’s uncompromising demand for a blockade lift as a precondition, makes an early announcement unlikely. However, the ongoing energy crisis—with U.S. gas prices at four-year highs—could create domestic political pressure for a vote on legislation to force the administration’s hand, though no such bill has been introduced. The next procedural milestone will be any public statement from Trump or Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding the status of the blockade, as the White House continues to weigh Iran’s peace offer. [USA Today, Apr 28]
Active market on Polymarket with $1.9M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 40c YES.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 34c vs market 40c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 40c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 73c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 52c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 57c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 78c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 73c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 75c | 70% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 41c | 65% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (41–78c vs 60c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 66c — market prices it at 60c. 6-point gap supports NO.
Smart money skews NO with profitable entries 3c below current price, signaling conviction that the blockade-lift announcement won't materialize by May 31. The 58c YES entries underwater by 18c suggest early optimism faded as diplomatic timelines slipped, with tracked wallets now positioned for status-quo resolution rather than de-escalation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 +100% | MM | YES | $49.6K | -20% | |
| 0x6bab..92 ★ +100% | MM | NO | $32.3K | +77% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | YES | $7.2K | -33% |
NO holders entered at 43c with YES now at 40c, putting 100% of NO positions in profit while YES buyers at 58c sit deeply underwater at -31%. The profitable NO book has no pressure to exit, while trapped YES holders provide weak price support — any rebound likely meets supply from breakeven sellers near 58c.
Significant 14-cent gap: Polymarket at 40c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 34c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40c | $1.9M |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 34c | — |