Trump has delegated Iran talks to Witkoff and Rubio throughout 2026, making direct attendance unlikely at 84% NO.
President Donald Trump departed for the Group of Seven summit in France on Sunday, June 14, 2026, with bilateral meetings scheduled alongside Middle East leaders as the U.S. and Iran approach the final stages of negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A senior administration official confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not attend the G7 bilateral sidebar, narrowing the roster to U.S. partners coordinating on the war's economic fallout. The question of whether donald trump attend the next us x iran diplomatic meeting in person remains the central procedural unknown heading into the summit week. [Bloomberg, Jun 13]
The signing protocol points away from a direct Trump-led session. Axios reported on June 13 that the U.S. and Iran, with Pakistani and Qatari mediators, are expected to hold a virtual meeting Sunday and electronically sign the framework agreement, a format that does not require principals in the same room. Trump himself said on June 11 that Vice President JD Vance would attend the European signing ceremony, an explicit delegation that aligns with the 84% NO probability on whether donald trump attend the next us x iran diplomatic meeting. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated Saturday that Tehran has no plans to send a negotiating team to Geneva in the coming days, per Iranian state media. [Axios, Jun 13]
Procedural friction remains. A source close to Tehran's negotiating team cited by Fars told Reuters that no initial MoU text has been approved, casting doubt on the weekend signing window even as Trump publicly indicated the deal could be finalized in Europe. The agreement on the table would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end active hostilities, and address Tehran's nuclear program — three deliverables European allies have pressed for amid the global economic fallout. Whether donald trump attend the next us x iran diplomatic meeting hinges on whether the format upgrades from electronic sign-off to an in-person ceremony, and on whether Iranian principals travel at all. [CNBC, Jun 14]
Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $268K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 83c–97c.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 83c–97c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | NO | $1.4K | +2% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | MM | NO | $1.0K | -12% |
NO wallets entered at 83c–97c. At current price 16c, 50% of NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $268K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 16c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $268K |
| Our Model | 16c | — |