AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is unambiguously one-sided — 2 tracked wallets, both NO, with entries clustered in the 83-97c band signaling high conviction that Trump skips the meeting. The absence of any YES entries from tracked alpha indicates the 8c price is not viewed as mispriced convexity but as fair value for a low-probability event. Directional signal: NO continuation, with smart money treating residual YES as noise rather than opportunity.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | NO | $1.5K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$314 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +21.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $459.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |