AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, entering between 71c and 75c, and are now deep in profit as the contract trades at 94c implied NO. This smart-money consensus signals strong conviction that Trump will not publicly insult Kevin Warsh by the deadline, consistent with Warsh's low public profile and no evident trigger for a Trump attack. Their entries reinforce the directional bias toward NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd039..32 | Smart | NO | $3.4K | +26% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $5.8K | +34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,528 on $9.2K capital deployed (avg +38.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $83.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |