Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
NO
84c
YES
16c
As of September 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?” at 16% YES with $57K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 16% probability to: will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by september 30, 2026?.
On this market: 5/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–98c vs 84c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 84c. 2-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Grok Contrarian at 28c — Consensus and informed wallets heavily favor NO at ~84% with PIN fair value as low as 2%, yet this underprices Trump's documented pattern...
1 of 2 Wallets Is a Politics Specialist
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on the NO side, entering between 71c and 75c. Their entries signal confidence that Trump will not publicly insult Kevin Warsh by the deadline, and the absence of any YES accumulation suggests smart money sees the 16c YES price as overvalued. This concentrated NO positioning points to continued downward pressure on the YES contract.
All tracked YES positions are underwater at the current 16c price, while every NO entry (71c-75c) sits in profit. This lopsided P&L creates strong incentive for NO holders to defend their gains, reinforcing the 16c level as a ceiling rather than a floor. With zero profitable YES wallets, there is little organic buying pressure to push the price higher.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 16c YES — $57K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $57K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $57K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 14c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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