AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 74c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 88c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 86c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 86c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 80c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is positioned one-sided YES at a premium price, signaling conviction that a Trump China visit is near-certain rather than a value play. Entries clustered at 94c suggest wallets are treating this as a late-stage confirmation trade, not directional alpha — upside is capped at 6c while downside risk grows if diplomatic signals stall.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | YES | $1.8K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$109 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +5.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $121.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 80c | — | ✓ matched |