Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May. Currently, markets are divided (46% YES, 54% NO). Week in review: record hacks and rising activity on Ethereum.

What’s Happening

The probability of Ethereum reaching $2,600 in May currently stands at 46% YES versus 54% NO, reflecting a market caught between bullish on-chain activity and bearish macro headwinds. On April 29, Bitcoin held near $78,000 while Ethereum activity jumped to peak levels, according to ForkLog, suggesting network usage is rising even as broader crypto prices consolidate. However, the same report noted a $500 million loss at American Bitcoin, raising questions about the durability of the current rally. For Ethereum to reach $2,600 in May, it would need to overcome resistance near the $2,550 level, a zone that has capped upside since mid-April. [ForkLog, May 03]

A key catalyst for the "YES" side is the sudden surge in BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF (ETHB), which pulled in $32.3 million on April 24, bringing its total holdings to 261,337 ETH. Forbes reported that this inflow "removes supply" from the open market, creating a supply squeeze that could push prices higher. If institutional demand continues at this pace, it could provide the momentum needed for Ethereum to reach $2,600 in May. Conversely, the "NO" camp points to the $500 million stake squeeze narrative, where large staked positions could be unwound if the price fails to hold above $2,400, a key support level watched by on-chain analysts. [Forbes, Apr 30]

Adding to the uncertainty, the Ethereum-based project Pepeto announced it raised $9.78 million on May 3, signaling continued retail and fund interest in the ecosystem despite price stagnation. Meanwhile, Riot Platforms sold another 500 bitcoins on May 1, a move that could pressure the broader crypto market and indirectly affect Ethereum’s path to $2,600. The immediate technical outlook hinges on whether Ethereum can hold above the 50-day moving average near $2,450; a break below that level would likely push the probability toward the 54% "NO" camp. Traders are watching for the next weekly close above $2,550 to confirm a breakout attempt. [Markets Business Insider, May 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $77K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($77K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 46c YES.