AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One alpha wallet at 5c YES is too thin to call directional smart money; it reads as a low-cost lottery ticket, not a thesis. Dominant NO flow elsewhere in the book aligns with the base rate — Auger-Aliassime has never won a Slam — so the lone YES entry signals optionality, not edge.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcf6c..66 | MM | YES | $1.5K | +105% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,506 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |