As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?” at 9% YES with $803K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). As such, Ferrari will edge ahead in the constructors’ championship and take the title ahead of Mercedes.
As of late August 2026, the Formula 1 Constructors' Championship standings show Mercedes holding a commanding 87-point lead over Ferrari, with McLaren trailing a further 75 points behind in third. The latest odds reflect this gap starkly: Mercedes sits at 1/12 (92.3% implied probability), while Ferrari is priced at 7/1 (12.5%), a discrepancy that underscores the scale of the challenge facing the Scuderia in their bid to become the 2026 F1 constructors' champion. Ferrari's chances have fluctuated throughout the season—after the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 28, the gap had shrunk to just 72 points following a fourth-and-fifth-place finish from Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, but Mercedes responded with a strong post-break run to stretch the margin back out to its current double-digit figure [GPFans, Aug 25].
The market's 7% probability for a Ferrari constructors' championship victory aligns closely with the analytical consensus that the team remains the only live challenger to Mercedes, but that their path requires near-perfection in the remaining nine races. Pre-season predictions from ESPN in March had tipped Ferrari to end its title drought, with George Russell entering as the drivers' championship favorite and Ferrari expected to push Mercedes to the wire—a scenario that materialized through the first half of the season before Mercedes' cautious upgrade strategy began paying dividends [ESPN, Mar 07]. PlanetF1's mid-August predictions had actually favored Ferrari to edge ahead in the constructors' standings and take the title "neck-and-neck all the way to the final chequered flag," but that forecast now looks optimistic given Mercedes' 87-point buffer and their demonstrated ability to manage the budget cap while maintaining performance [PlanetF1, Aug 17].
What matters next is the second-half trajectory: Ferrari must outscore Mercedes by an average of nearly 10 points per race to close the gap, a feat they have not consistently managed all season. Historical precedent offers little comfort—since the hybrid era began in 2014, no team has overcome a deficit larger than 50 points at this stage of a season to win the constructors' title. The financial stakes are significant, as each championship position is worth millions in next year's development funding, and Ferrari's recent form—including a strong Hungarian weekend where they secured double points—shows they have the pace, but consistency against Mercedes' Russell-led lineup remains the critical variable [ESPN, Jul 28]. With the final races including high-downforce circuits that historically favor Ferrari's chassis, the 7% odds could shift if the Scuderia delivers a dominant stretch—but as it stands, Mercedes remains the overwhelming favorite to retain the crown.
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