How did 'Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 17, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 17, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $6.6M

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Resolved · MAY 17

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 5 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	72c	44%
Compound Signal	NO	50c	0%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	61c	55%
Gemini Flash	???	55c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	61c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 60c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 35c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$13.7K	+18%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 50c (+18%), $13.7K on YES Activity · 15 events · Mar 05 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYYES33+$14$14 Mar 10BUYYES36+$7$22 Mar 25BUYYES38+$38$61 Apr 22BUYYES37+$484$543 Apr 23BUYYES36+$5$544 Apr 24BUYYES36+$726$1,263 Apr 25BUYYES37+$2,979$4,280 Apr 26BUYYES37+$200$4,471 Apr 27BUYYES37+$263$4,705 Apr 29BUYYES35+$238$4,767 May 01BUYYES34+$60$4,705 May 03BUYYES34+$679$5,323 May 04BUYYES35+$2,756$8,231 May 05BUYYES35+$6,278$14,614 May 06BUYYES37+$1,094$16,209 Realized— Unrealized+$2,890 Total Profit+$2,890 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1376 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$13,698 on $13.7K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	45c	$6.6M	0c
AI Consensus	60c	—	× missed

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