AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c |
28%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 95c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 89c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 94c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 +76% | MM | YES | $2.1K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$141 on $2.1K capital deployed (avg +6.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $269.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 89c | — | ✓ matched |