Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
NO
69c
YES
31c
As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?” at 31% YES with $57K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 31% probability to: will flávio bolsonaro win brazil, gadi eizenkot become israeli pm, and democrats win the us senate?.
On this market: 6/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (62–98c vs 69c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 69c. 12-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)
1 of 1 Wallets Is a Politics Specialist
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 63c, positioning against all three outcomes and signaling skepticism toward the combined parlay. With no YES entries recorded, smart money is absent on the bullish side, reinforcing the dominant NO direction. This wallet's profitable stance implies the market is pricing the triple outcome as unlikely to materialize.
All YES positions are underwater at the current 31c price, while every NO entry from 63c is in profit, creating strong one-sided P&L pressure. This skew discourages new YES buying and reinforces the NO side's grip on the market. The lack of profitable YES holders suggests the 31c level is vulnerable to further downside.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 31c YES — $57K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 31c with $57K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. Significant 12-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
What are the current odds for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 31% YES with $57K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 19c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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