AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (7 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 25c |
47%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
55%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet has taken only NO positions at 75c, with no YES entries, signaling one-sided conviction against a Flavio Bolsonaro first-round plurality. This concentrated NO exposure at a relatively high price implies the wallet views the YES contract as overvalued and expects further erosion. With no smart-money YES participation, the directional signal leans bearish for the YES outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $12.4K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$12,421 on $12.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 28c | $2.6M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | × missed |