As of October 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?” at 40% YES with $312K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 40% probability to: will flávio bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 22-point mispricing — fair value 62c vs market 40c. BUY YES at 40c — models see 22c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 70c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 55c | 30% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 62c | 35% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 35% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (55–70c vs 40c). Grok Contrarian leads with 35% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 62c — market prices it at 40c. 22-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 40c, signaling a directional bet that Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round by under 4% at fair value. With no NO entries from this wallet, the positioning is unambiguously bullish on the narrow-margin outcome and provides no evidence of smart-money hedging or reversal. This lone YES entry implies the wallet sees the 40c price as either fair or slightly undervalued relative to its model.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $1.1K | +1% |
With YES trading at 40c and all tracked YES entries between 40c-40c, every YES position is currently at breakeven-to-marginal profit, while no NO entries exist to show counter-side conviction. The absence of profitable NO positions means there is no loss-driven selling pressure from the bearish side, leaving the 40c level supported by a one-sided book. This structure suggests YES holders have little incentive to exit at current prices, reinforcing the 40c floor.
Polymarket prices YES at 40c with $312K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 62c. Significant 22-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40c | $312K |
| Our Model | 62c | — |