AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 1 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Inference | ??? | 12c |
35%
|
|
| Hidden Markov | ??? | 11c |
30%
|
|
| PIN Model | ??? | 11c |
25%
|
|
| Ensemble Boosting | NO | 15c |
40%
|
|
| Gaussian Process | YES | 25c |
20%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 94c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $5.7K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$348 on $5.7K capital deployed (avg +6.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $4.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |